One Quarter Expect Regular Celebrations by Labour Day, 3 in 5 by Christmas

Numerator, a data and tech company serving the market research space, has launched a new Canadian holiday sentiment study to understand the impact of the pandemic and vaccination status on upcoming holidays, and specifically, how people plan to celebrate, shop and spend for Victoria Day, Father’s Day, St. Jean Baptiste Day, and Canada Day 2021. The sentiment survey of more than 4,000 Canadian consumers shows the following key findings:

Overall, Canadian consumers are expecting a return to normal holiday celebrations (free of COVID-19 restrictions) much later than their US counterparts. Just over 1 in 5 (22%) expect a return to normalcy by Canada Day 2021, in contrast to the 59% of Americans who expect a return to normalcy by the same week (4th of July holiday). Almost a third (32%) of Canadian consumers expect that regular holiday celebrations will not resume until 2022, compared to 13% of US consumers.

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First “Normal” Holiday Expectation

Readiness for holiday “normalcy” varies based on vaccination level. Consumers who do not plan to get the vaccine are more than twice as likely to say they are ready to celebrate holidays on a larger scale, and 45% say they are ready to celebrate holidays normally. In contrast, fully vaccinated consumers and those awaiting a vaccine are the most cautious groups, with 35% saying they will ease back into normal celebrations, and 1 in 5 planning to stick to small scale celebrations for the foreseeable future, even after restrictions are lifted.

Consumer Intent: Post-COVID Holiday Approach
% of Vaccine Status Group, Canadian Consumers

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Holiday-specific findings include:

Victoria Day 2021:

• Less than 1 in 10 consumers (8%) expect to celebrate Victoria Day normally this year, with 92% still expecting a COVID impact.
• Consumers plan to replace eating out with ordering in this year. 1 in 4 celebrators (27%) plan to order food and drinks, up from 17% in previous years.
• With fewer, smaller celebrations planned, nearly half (48%) of Victoria Day celebrators plan to spend less than they have in years past.

Father’s Day 2021:

• Fewer than 1 in 5 consumers (17%) say that the pandemic will have no impact on their Father’s Day celebrations, and nearly half (46%) say COVID will still have a significant impact.
• Pandemic-style celebrations will continue this Father’s Day as consumers are 49% less likely to see their fathers in-person this year, and 90% more likely to call or video chat.
• Father’s Day planned gift giving is down for 2021, with one-third of consumers planning to buy a gift for Dad, compared to nearly half (48%) in previous years.
  • The top five Father’s Day gifting categories include: Gift Cards (51% of gift givers), Food/Drinks (29%), Apparel (28%), Electronics (16%) and Sporting Goods (9%).

St. Jean Baptiste Day 2021:

• Of all holidays surveyed, St. Jean Baptiste Day saw the highest percentage of consumers (68%) expecting a significant COVID impact to their celebration plans.
• In previous years, nearly half (49%) of celebrators attended public events or festivals, but only 1 in 10 (11%) plan to do so this year.
• Similar to other holidays, consumers have an increased likelihood of ordering food and drinks for pick up or delivery, up 17% for this year vs previous years.

Canada Day 2021:

• Only 6% of celebrators expect their Canada Day plans to be unaffected by the pandemic.
• Canadian consumers are 47% more likely to order food/drinks for takeout or delivery – the only celebration method which saw an increase from previous years.
• While the number of consumers planning to Grill/Barbecue is down slightly (45% in 2021 vs 50% in previous years), Grilling/Barbecuing has jumped to the #1 celebration method for Canada Day 2021, surpassing Gathering with Family/Friends and Attending Public Events/Festivals.
• Fewer consumers plan to buy outdoor grills (15% of consumers in 2021 vs 30% in previous years) or grilling materials (20% in 2021 vs 28% in previous years).

The Numerator 2021 Q2 Canada Holiday Survey was fielded on 4/26/2021 to 4,290 Canadian consumers.

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