Flat is the new up says media ecologist Jack Myers

Media ecologist Jack Myers, chairman of MediaVillage and The Myers Report, announced the publication of The Myers Report’s 30th annual Marketing/Advertising Data and Forecast. The Myers Report also includes a look at the ups and downs of the 2022/23 Upfront investment, which surveyed senior agency decision makers at eight global media buying organizations.

Says Myers: “Flat is the new up. U.S. advertising investments are forecast to increase only 0.7% in 2023 with total marketing up 0.4%; retail media gains at 20%; while national TV is forecast to be down 4.0%.” Myers points to the cyclical impact of more than $12 billion invested in 2022 political advertising plus the World Cup and Beijing Olympics included in the 2022 advertising spend. He warns, however, “there are secular headwinds that will continue to repress advertising investments. These include programmatic and procurement-led commoditization, data disruption, expansion of retail media networks, and a ‘shiny new object syndrome’ in digital media investments.”

Total marketing investments, including advertising, sales promotion, and direct marketing, are estimated to have increased 3.2% ($515 billion) in 2022 and projected to deliver only 0.4% growth in 2023 ($517 billion).

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Myers believes there is “significant upside for advertising supported media in the second-half of the decade and beyond once the marketplace adjusts to the ongoing digital, data and distribution transformation and integrates advanced technology into marketers’ tool kits.” He warns the financial community to “continue to invest in advertising supported media companies that own legacy brands with valuable intellectual capital,” drawing a comparison to ‘downtown central city’ real estate that is the foundation of renewed urban growth. “The current attitude among investors toward legacy ad supported media companies will not only kill the golden goose that continues to lay eggs but will destroy the economic marketing ecosystem that depends on it.”

Myers has been an outspoken critic of “an industry-wide failure to invest in educating marketers, the financial community and consumers on the value and importance of advertising supported media. To effectively compete in the global marketplace,” he says, “the advertising supported media community must invest in building positive brand equity for their own industry among marketers and investors. Most importantly,” Myers emphasizes, “the industry must increase investments in building a diverse modern workforce by educating them about the amazing career opportunities being created in the industry.”

The 30^th annual report covers 2021 actuals, 2022 final estimates and 2023 forecasts for 45 above and below-the-line marketing and media categories. The Myers Report estimates a 7.1% increase in 2022 advertising spending ($197.5 billion), reflecting 6.1% growth of legacy/linear media ($89.6 billion) and 7.8% digital media growth ($107.9 billion). For 2023, The Myers Report forecasts 6.3% declines in legacy linear advertising investments offset by 6.5% growth in digital spend.

Myers has been forecasting economic trends for nearly four decades and was the first to reflect the flow of “below-the-line” promotional budgets to “above-the-line” advertising as marketers embraced social and search, driving advertising growth as total marketing budgets stagnated. Similarly, The Myers Report has been actively covering the Retail Media Networks marketplace, which is growing at a steady 20% annual rate and is projected to generate $50 billion in 2025, much of which will be reallocated from social and search and increasingly from television and newspaper budgets. The Myers Report points to Advanced Television as a growing business for television media, estimating average 30% annual increases through 2025, when it’s forecast to generate more than $7 billion in ad revenue.

The methodology for The Myers Report’s 30^th Annual Marketing/Advertising Data and Forecast is based primarily on The Myers Report primary research plus tracking of several available sources including BIA Advisory, Cowen and Company, Group M, Magna Global, Zenith/Publicis, eMarketer, MoffettNathanson, Nielsen, Standard Media Index. The 2022 Myers Report compares legacy/linear investments to digital investments for most major marketing and advertising categories.

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