TransUnion analyzes early holiday ecommerce fraud attempt rates

As millions of consumers took advantage of Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals this past week, a new analysis from TransUnion found that 4.6% of attempted ecommerce transactions globally were suspected to be Digital Fraud from this Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday. Based on proprietary insights from TransUnion’s global intelligence network, TransUnion found that the global suspected Digital Fraud rate was down from 6.0% during the same period in 2023. For attempted ecommerce transactions where the consumer was in the U.S., 4.2% were suspected of Digital Fraud during the 2024 holiday shopping period. That’s down from 5.8% during the same period in 2023.

The analysis reviewed attempted ecommerce transactions from across the globe during the Cyber Five period, which consists of the days between November 28 (Thanksgiving Day) and December 2 (Cyber Monday), 2024.

The study determined that the average number of suspected Digital Fraud attempts on any given day during that holiday period globally was 30.2% lower than the same period in 2023 and 5.9% lower than during the rest of 2024 (Jan. 1, 2024, to Nov. 27, 2024).

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Source: TransUnion TruValidate™

“The late U.S. Thanksgiving holiday along with the general lengthening of the holiday shopping season were factors in the overall decline in transactions and the concurrent downtick in suspected fraud during the Cyber Five,” said Steve Yin, global head of fraud at TransUnion. “For online retailers, this speaks to the need to maintain diligence year-round. For the remainder of this holiday shopping season, and beyond, online retailers must continue to implement tools that maintain a friction-right experience, wherein both business and consumer are protected without major disruption.”

The greatest fraud disruptions globally during Cyber Five occurred on Thursday, November 28 with 5.3% of all attempted digital transactions on that day suspected to be Digital Fraud. The study also revealed the suspected Digital Fraud rate for each day in the holiday shopping period for attempted transactions where the consumer was in the U.S. during the transaction. Similar to global data, the suspected Digital Fraud attempt rate was the highest on Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, November 28 during the holiday shopping period in the U.S.

Source: TransUnion TruValidate

As part of this analysis, TransUnion also determined the top signals indicating risk of fraudulent ecommerce transactions during the holiday shopping season globally. This year, unusually high transaction volume from a single device and devices being newly associated with an account were among the leading indicators for potential fraud attempts.

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Many Holiday Shoppers Remain Concerned About Digital Fraud

The decrease in suspected Digital Fraud came as a majority of U.S. consumers indicated they were at least moderately concerned about being victimized by Digital Fraud during this holiday shopping season. TransUnion’s Q4 2024 US Consumer Pulse Study found that 64% of survey respondents indicated that they were extremely, very or moderately concerned about digital fraud during this busy shopping period.

“The winter holidays are always hugely impactful to retailers’ bottom lines, and our recent survey indicates that consumers may be particularly eager to buy this holiday shopping season,” said Yin. “It’s as important as ever for retailers to equip themselves with the tools they need to detect fraud early. These tools can help minimize fraudulent transactions while at the same time protecting legitimate transactions. Retailers should seek to implement holistic fraud solutions that can verify customer identity and authenticity as early as possible during a transaction.”

TransUnion came to its conclusions about Digital Fraud based on intelligence from its identity and fraud product suite that helps secure trust across channels and delivers efficient consumer experiences – TransUnion TruValidate. The rate or percentage of suspected Digital Fraud attempts reflects those which TransUnion customers determined met one of the following conditions: 1) denial in real time due to fraudulent indicators, 2) denial in real time for corporate policy violations, 3) fraudulent upon customer investigation, or 4) a corporate policy violation upon customer investigation — compared to all transactions assessed. The country and regional analyses examined transactions in which the consumer or suspected fraudster was located in a select country and region when conducting a transaction. Global statistics represent every country worldwide.