Clarivate Forecasts Nearly 70% of North American, European and Asia Pacific Adult Populations Will Be Vaccinated for COVID-19 by September 2021

Clarivate Plc , a global leader in providing trusted information and insights to accelerate the pace of innovation, announced the launch of its COVID-19 Vaccine Availability and Medtech Impact Report which features retrospective, current and predictive analysis to forecast an estimate of the rate at which vaccination will occur in each country in 2021. The report found that, despite continued public health measures in 2021, it is expected that the emergence of multiple vaccines in late 2020 and the rollout of these vaccines globally will determine how healthcare markets recover in 2021 and beyond.

Lockdowns, procedure deferrals, clinical trial pauses and M&A challenges all impact the fundamental operations of healthcare stakeholders. Real world data from Clarivate provides a clear understanding of past trends and allows for predictive forecasting to enable more confident decision-making for stakeholders tasked with the recovery of healthcare systems.

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The report details the current vaccine development status and the various distinctions between available vaccines, an analysis of global vaccination rollout campaigns, how these factors influence forecasting and the impact of vaccination availability on healthcare markets and sectors.

Clarivate analysts reviewed the impact of events such as the COVID-19 pandemic in market forecasting, incorporating iterative improvements based on real-world circumstances.

The Clarivate COVID-19 Vaccine Availability and Medtech Impact report finds:

  • Vaccine Acceptance and Rate Forecast by Geography — Along with supply and deployment concerns, varying rates of trust in the COVID-19 vaccine observed in recent surveys have raised concerns about whether enough of the population would be willing to get vaccinated. As a result, rates of vaccine acceptance—defined as the proportion of unvaccinated adults who indicate that they would receive a vaccine if it were available to them—vary widely by region. Studies show vaccine acceptance rates of 94% in Malaysia, 89% in the UK, 85% in Mainland China and Mexico respectively, 79% in Canada and 71% in the United States, among others.1 Vaccination penetration forecasts for each country, coupled with an estimated reopening threshold of 60%—based on the penetration rate in Israel at which the government began permanent re-openings—provide a guideline for variation in anticipated reopening timelines.
  • Site of Service Impacts — During the initial COVID-19 wave, US-based Ambulatory Surgery Centers (ASC) were hardest hit, while inpatient settings were the least impacted, as expected. ASCs and offices were trending at higher procedure capacity utilization rates than hospitals in Q4 2020, which may signal a more robust 2021 recovery for those settings.4 ASCs functioned at slightly higher than 100% full utilization (i.e., exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels) through the last quarter of the year. This may signal a push of procedures away from inpatient settings amid a resurgence of COVID-19 that ultimately were performed in ASCs.
  • Non-Acute Settings – There is a similar view for US-based non-acute settings, demonstrating how skilled nursing facilities remain substantially below full procedure capacity utilization, possibly due to the need for expanded nursing staff in hospitals treating COVID-19 patients. Simultaneously, clinics and home health also took a substantial hit in the initial wave, but have seen stronger recovery following that initial wave. Notably, telehealth emerged as a useful alternative for in-person care in 2020; however, telehealth volumes remain quite low relatively; and its heightened use will endure and likely expand beyond the pandemic.

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Zaid Al-Nassir, Principal Analyst, Medtech Insights, Clarivate, said: “Given the lack of historical data and immense pressure on health care stakeholders globally, predictive analysis of recovery drivers, such as vaccination, provides a unique insight for planning, decision making, and both market and regional targeting. The new imperative for global health, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, has amplified the need for connected data to support complex analyses and evidence-based decisions in the life sciences.”

Clarivate is committed to comprehensively supporting customers across the entire drug, device and medical technology lifecycles to advance human health, including the Health Industry Distributors Association (HIDA). With Clarivate tools such as the Coronavirus, Virology, and Infectious Disease (CVID) Data Lake, researchers around the world can access scientific, clinical, commercial and research data within one seamless and secure platform. In addition, in partnership with HIDA, Clarivate offers the industry’s most comprehensive view of the medical device market. The new report further demonstrates how the expertise, data and technologies of Clarivate enable customers to make informed evidence-based decisions.